Schobie’s (premature) Oscar predictions: Best Picture


Awards season is fun, wild, and absurd. Seeing what is in the mix, what falls away, what sticks, etc., is fascinating, and even though I am not an Oscar insider, I can certainly to pretend to be an Oscar prognosticator. There are still films to be see

  • 12 Years a Slave
  • American Hustle
  • Blue Jasmine
  • Captain Phillips
  • Dallas Buyers Club
  • Gravity
  • Lee Daniels’ The Butler
  • Philomena
  • Saving Mr. Banks
  • The Wolf of Wall Street

I’m going out on a limb and predicting that All Is Lost, August: Osage County, Her, Inside Llewyn Davis, and Nebraska all miss the cut. As I write this, Hustle and Wolf have not been screened, but both seem to be agreed upon as likely candidates. The locks, it seems to me, are 12 Years, Phillips, Gravity, and Mr. Banks. I think respect for Woody Allen and the film’s dramatic power make Blue Jasmine one of the ten (if, that is, there are even ten selections this year). Dallas, Butler, and Philomena, on the other hand, are films that many find extremely moving. That counts for a lot. And even though all three receive strong but not overwhelming reviews, the onscreen emotion will carry them through.

Of course, I could be totally wrong. But I think this ten makes a lot of sense. I believe the ultimate winner will be 12 Years or Gravity — most likely Gravity.

Much depends on how American Hustle and The Wolf of Wall Street are received. But looking at it logically — box office hit, solid reviews, technological achievement, a “made for the big screen” film, two beloved stars, a respected filmmaker — it is hard not to see Gravity as the film to beat.

I, of course, would be voting for 12 Years a Slave …