My last-minute, based-on-nothing-but-my-own-intuition Oscar nomination predictions

her1

Oscar nominations are announced on Thursday, and much has changed since my last set of predictions. Some of my more ambitious picks now seem … well, pretty unlikely. Here are my current selections, and note that these are what I THINK they will be — not what I WANT them to be.

 

BEST PICTURE

12 Years a Slave (Steve McQueen)

American Hustle (David O. Russell)

Captain Phillips (Paul Greengrass)

Dallas Buyers Club (Jean-Marc Vallee)

Gravity (Alfonso Cuarón)

Her (Spike Jonze)

Nebraska (Alexander Payne)

Philomena (Stephen Frears)

Saving Mr. Banks (John Lee Hancock)

The Wolf of Wall Street (Martin Scorsese)

 

If one of the above should fall … :

All Is Lost (JC Chandor)

August: Osage County (John Wells)

Blue Jasmine (Woody Allen)

Inside Llewyn Davis (Joel & Ethan Coen)

Lee Daniels’ The Butler (Lee Daniels)

 

BEST DIRECTOR

Alfonso Cuarón, Gravity

Paul Greengrass, Captain Phillips

Steve McQueen, 12 Years a Slave

David O. Russell, American Hustle

Martin Scorsese, The Wolf of Wall Street

 

If one of the above should fall … :

Woody Allen, Blue Jasmine

Joel & Ethan Coen, Inside Llewyn Davis

Lee Daniels, Lee Daniels’ The Butler

Spike Jonze, Her

Alexander Payne, Nebraska

 

BEST ACTOR

Bruce Dern (Nebraska)

Chiwetel Ejiofer (12 Years a Slave)

Tom Hanks (Captain Phillips)

Matthew McConaughey (Dallas Buyers Club)

Robert Redford (All Is Lost)

 

If one of the above should fall … :

Christian Bale (American Hustle)

Leonardo DiCaprio (The Wolf of Wall Street)

Oscar Isaac (Inside Llewyn Davis)

Joaquin Phoenix (Her)

Forest Whitaker (The Butler)

 

BEST ACTRESS

Amy Adams (American Hustle)

Cate Blanchett (Blue Jasmine)

Sandra Bullock (Gravity)

Judi Dench (Philomena)

Emma Thompson (Saving Mr. Banks)

 

If one of the above should fall … :

Julie Delpy (Before Midnight)

Adèle Exarchopoulos (Blue is the Warmest Color)

Brie Larson (Short Term 12)

Meryl Streep (August: Osage County)

 

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

Barkhad Abdi (Captain Phillips)

Michael Fassbender (12 Years a Slave)

Tom Hanks (Saving Mr. Banks)

James Gandolfini (Enough Said)

Jared Leto (Dallas Buyers Club)

 

If one of the above should fall … :

Daniel Bruhl (Rush)

Bradley Cooper (American Hustle)

Will Forte (Nebraska)

James Franco (Spring Breakers)

Jonah Hill (The Wolf of Wall Street)

 

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

Jennifer Lawrence (American Hustle)

Lupita Nyong’o (12 Years a Slave)

Julia Roberts (August: Osage County)

June Squibb (Nebraska)

Oprah Winfrey (Lee Daniels’ The Butler)

 

If one of the above should fall … :

Sally Hawkins (Blue Jasmine)

Scarlett Johannson (Her)

Margo Martindale (August: Osage County)

Margot Robbie (The Wolf of Wall Street)

Octavia Spencer (Fruitvale Station)

 

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

Woody Allen, Blue Jasmine

Joel & Ethan Coen, Inside Llewyn Davis

Spike Jonze, Her

Bob Nelson, Nebraska

David O. Russell and Eric Singer, American Hustle

 

If one of the above should fall … :

Craig Borten & Melisa Wallack, Dallas Buyers Club

Ryan Coogler, Fruitvale Station

Alfonso Cuaron and Jonas Cuaron, Gravity

Nicole Holofcener, Enough Said

Kelly Marcel and Sue Smith, Saving Mr. Banks

 

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

Steve Coogan and Jeff Pope, Philomena

Julie Delpy, Ethan Hawke & Richard Linklater, Before Midnight

Billy Ray, Captain Phillips

John Ridley, 12 Years a Slave

Terence Winter, The Wolf of Wall Street

 

If one of the above should fall … :

Peter Berg, Lone Survivor

Daniel Cretton, Short Term 12

Ghalia Lacroix and Abdellatif Kechiche, Blue Is The Warmest  Color

Tracy Letts, August: Osage County

 

BEST FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM

Belgium, “The Broken Circle Breakdown,” Felix van Groeningen

Denmark, “The Hunt,” Thomas Vinterberg

Hong Kong, “The Grandmaster,” Wong Kar-wai

Italy, “The Great Beauty,” Paolo Sorrentino

Palestine, “Omar,” Hany Abu-Assad

 

BEST DOCUMENTARY

20 Feet from Stardom

Blackfish

The Square

Stories We Tell

Tim’s Vermeer

 

If one of the above should fall … :

The Act of Killing

Cutie and the Boxer

Dirty Wars

 

BEST ANIMATED FILM

The Croods

Despicable Me 2

Frozen

Monsters University

The Wind Rises